Guardian ( Trinidad and Tobago )
11 February 2021 ( Page 4 )
Billions lost as festival cancelled
By Geisha Kowlessar-Alonzo
¦ Billions lost in potential spending in the economy
¦ From Airlines to hotels to gyms suffer from no Carnival
¦ Forex crunch worsened by cancellation of festival
T &T stands to lose close $500 million in visitor expenditure and billions in export
services with the cancellation of Carnival 2021.
Economist and creative industries specialist Dr Keith Nurse, who has done extensive
work in the creative sector and is principal/ president Sir Arthur Lewis Community
College, Castries St Lucia explained that festival tourism is a major component of the
creative industries which therefore dovetails with the tourism sector.
He noted that earnings from visitor arrivals have been the main economic revenue
stream from Carnival.
Nurse said for 2020 T&T received close to 38,000 visitors, adding that visitor
expenditure amounted to $403 million for that year.
In 2019 visitor expenditure was $388 million.
According to Trinidad Tourism Ltd the Carnival season, which runs from the beginning
of January until Ash Wednesday, generates the largest inflow of visitors to Trinidad.
For example, February is typically the month with the largest number of arrivals
including the highest number of hotels, private and guest house visits.
According to Trinidad Tourism, Carnival visitor arrivals grew rapidly during the period
1997 to 2006, from 27,00 to around 42,000.
Since then, arrivals have stabilised in the vicinity of 34,000-39,000 visitors. For
example, the tourist arrivals for 2019 is estimated at 35,560.
The average length of stay per visitor increased to 13 days in 2019: from 12 days in
2018. In 2013, the average length of stay was 11 days.
Noting that 2020 was a “good year” Nurse explained, “We got these arrivals just about
a week or two before COVID really exploded.”
Nurse cited that out of that 2020 expenditure, 48 per cent was spent on entertainment,
30 per cent on accommodation and meals, seven per cent on land transport including
car rentals, three per cent on groceries and five per cent on shopping.
But with the cancellation, industry players will also be unable to export their services
from which the hosting of Carnival creates that demand.
Nurse said earnings from the creative sector export steelband and artists performances,
export services from bands and Carnival designers, DJs) are between US $50 to US$60
million annually.
“If you win Road March you could almost guarantee you could earn US $1 million or
more in terms of performances and gigs in the next year or two.
“So this even gives you a brand. It gives you market power as an artist which you can
then leverage in the market place in terms of negotiations. So when someone is
advertising your performance they can say Soca Monarch from 2020 for instance and
that has a lot of currency,” Nurse explained.
He added that without the festival taking place, the brand of the artist would therefore
erode which also does not necessarily create opportunities for new artists.
Going virtual, however, gives the industry a second lifeblood.
But Nurse advised that a stronger infrastructure is needed for this to be sustained.
“This is where we need to strengthen our capabilities and help our artists and cultural
entrepreneurs to strengthen their e-commerce platforms and capabilities,” he advised.
Financial devastation
Cancellations of Carnival 2021 will surely bring financial devastation to many operators
in the industry, as well as to the national economy as the festival is perhaps the most
integrated and inclusive of all industries in the country, drawing on outputs from most
other industries and having an expression in most communities.
So noted economist Dr Vanus James who explained that in terms of its offerings to the
public, the core of the industry is the nexus of fêtes, calypso tents, related competitions,
and other live performances of artists, the practice sessions of the steelbands and the
various panorama competitions, and the epitome of creation and masquerade of works
of mas in all corners and communities of the country.
“The local and regional artists who provide in-demand live performance of music to the
events will lose millions in appearance fees.
“Organisers of fêtes, tents, and other events, and the carnival parades themselves, will
also lose millions due to the cancellations by tens of thousands of local and foreign
patrons,” James said.
Closely related, he added, will be lost revenues from the after-Carnival beach limes and
“cool downs,” from which Mayaro, Maracas and Tobago which profit greatly each year.
Data on the music royalties generated by these events back in 2012 estimate revenues
lost to all these enterprises from the cancellations at more than US$10 million.
James added that correspondingly, holders of rights in music will also lose the biggest
chunk of the royalties they generate annually when their songs are played publicly, and
so will the collective management organisations (CMOs) that administer these rights.
He said together with the 2012 World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO)
estimates, some data recently obtained from the CMOs across the Caribbean suggest
that, in the case of T&T, these losses can be put at more than US$250,000 for 2021.
Loss of royalties on that scale will strain the capacity of local CMOs to provide adequate
distributions to support the carnival music creators during the year.
Many of these creators will have to turn to other means of generating income, resulting
in incalculable damage to the creative process itself.
And, all of this does not even count the psychological cost of the loss of jobs associated
with the cancelled events.
“The live offerings are the core of the national capacity to innovate and the Carnival
events comprise the quintessential showcase of local talent and its creations.
“However, these service offerings are complemented by a broad class of support
activities ranging from food vending and indoor restaurant services, to transport and
Carnival fashions,” James further explained.
Thus, the cancellations will create spillover losses for the local transport industry,
including boat and yacht cruise tours, car rentals, gas stations, trucking and interisland shipping, all of which boom when the Carnival festivals are ongoing, he added.
Big losses, James explained, will also be borne by airline and cruise travel, which
normally do a brisk trade shuttling patrons to and from the country.
He noted that some estimates put the number of foreign patrons and pilgrims at more
than 100,000 annually.
To room, feed and entertain local and foreign patrons, hotels and guest houses are
generally fully booked during the festival season, which tends to overlap the period
from Christmas to Lent.
“On the ground, night clubs do a large share of their annual “all night” business during
the carnival season.
“Even gyms and fitness centres do well as masqueraders get fit for the carnival
escapades.
Now all of that is likely gone,” James said.
Using the 2012 data as a reference point, estimates of the gross revenues lost by all
these segments during the season can range between US$100 and US$400 million, he
noted.
James also advised that the security industry will bear some pain from loss of
opportunity to provide a wide range of private and public security services to keep
venues, events and the wider public safe. Even the banking system is not left out of the
pain.
He cited that during a 2012 study for the National Carnival Commission (NCC) patrons,
local and foreign, told an NCC survey team that every year they save upwards of
US$15,000 and then “blow” all of these savings on Carnival along with whatever they
could credibly borrow from the banks and credit unions.
“That business would be lost in 2021.
In the 2012 survey, foreign revellers reported spending just above US$7000 of the
US15,000 in the country.
“For just 50,000 visiting carnival tourists, that amounts to lost foreign exchange
earnings for the season in excess of US$350 million, not considering lost international
travel earnings by Caribbean Airlines. Put in the context of the current foreign
exchange crunch, those are not trivial sums,” James added.
Not to be left out are radio and TV stations, and the print press, which report on the
events, play and popularise the music being showcased, and generate significant
revenues from advertising the events.
The 2012 WIPO study indicated that these are the biggest operators in the whole
industry, and those estimates suggest that cancellation of Carnival events can cost them
more than US$45 million for the season.
Domestic tourism
Heidi Alert, acting chief executive officer of Tourism Trinidad Ltd, noted that the
impact of COVID-19 Carnival, has been significant as it is usually marked by jam
packed parties, parades and tens of thousands of people celebrating in the streets.
However, she said this global health crisis has also spurred tremendous innovation in
the festival arena and a rise in virtual events to keep the Carnival passion alive.
Alert said Tourism Trinidad has strategically placed domestic tourism as the first pillar
upon which the tourism recovery will kick-start.
“We are working with primary tourism stakeholders and community groups to develop
creative tour offerings that will appeal to the local market; encouraging citizen to travel
and explore the splendour of their country responsibly, under the guidance of the
health and safety protocols,” she explained.
She added that the “Sweet Sweet Trinidad” Staycation campaign is building public
awareness of tourist sites and attractions, as well as providing tourism stakeholders
with much needed revenue generation opportunities.
Incentives such as affordable rates, discounts, and enticing packages are playing a
critical role in getting Trinis to travel their own country.
This year, tour operators such as RoadTripTT and Candy Coated Experiences to name a
few, have developed exciting, fun, and educational “traditional Carnival experience”
tours such as being a Moko Jumbie for a day or learning to be a whip master, Alert
added.
Still too early for Carnival 2022
Economist Dr Vaalmikki Arjoon said it’s still too early to predict the likely extent of
participation in T&T’s Carnival 2022.
This, he said, really hinges on how quickly the vaccine is rolled out and its efficacy in
allowing T&T to develop herd immunity.
“It also depends on how quickly the international community, especially those
countries that typically patronise our carnival develop their herd immunity.
“Pragmatically, it may take some time for desirable levels of herd immunity levels to
become a reality; we should aim to inoculate at least one million persons in less than a
year and this is quite possible once there is an efficient institutional structure in place
to inoculate as much persons,” Arjoon said.
With no Carnival this year, he said T&T should have recognised its importance to the
social and economic fabric of the country.
“More effort is needed to maximise the tourism potential of Carnival, and the state
ought to implement an aggressive marketing campaign to attract more visitors postCOVID.
“We also need to make better use of cultural tourism through international marketing
of our other festival celebrations, such as Divali, to attract more visitors and the T&T
diaspora residing abroad,” he added.
Photo - Dr Keith Nurse/
Photo - Dr Vanus James/
Photo - Dr Vaalmikki Arjoon